Cohort studies and method notes. About the machine and about the population of companies, not about what to buy.
These are open permanently and free to quote with attribution. Where a study contradicts something we published earlier, both versions stay up and the newer one says so.
| forthcoming | Payable days mean opposite things in two neighbouring sectors In grid EPC a long payable cycle is the funding model and the warning is it shrinking. In power equipment the same shrinkage is read the normal way up. One ratio, two signs, decided by the cluster the company sits in. |
| forthcoming | Chasing three-month winners has a negative information coefficient A panel over seven quarters of Indian small caps, returns de-meaned within quarter. Recent momentum reverses; margin expansion is the most stable predictor across horizons; quarterly investor-flow deltas come out near zero, which contradicts my own earlier pilot on a much smaller sample. |
| forthcoming | Cash conversion is the only signal that survives every holding period Operating cash flow against operating profit, tested at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months with Newey-West standard errors. Almost nothing else holds at every horizon, and several things that look strong at 3 months change sign by 12. |
Tools
Parts of the data layer are being opened up. Not the scoring and not the gates — those are the edge — but the plumbing underneath, which is genuinely tedious to rebuild and has no competitive value to anyone hoarding it.
| forthcoming | Shareholding-pattern extraction, NSE and BSE Pulls the quarterly shareholder register for any listed Indian company and archives it per quarter so it can be diffed. Handles the traps: the same filing published under two date formats, dead legacy endpoints, and category rows that look like investors and are not. |
| forthcoming | Bhavcopy store with catch-up A local, adjusted daily price panel built from exchange bhavcopy, that backfills whatever it missed rather than silently serving stale prices. |
| forthcoming | Scrip-code and identity resolution Mapping a name to a BSE scrip code, and holding a company's identity together across renames and ISIN changes. Unglamorous and the reason most retail datasets quietly have survivorship bias. |